On Saturday, February 4, 2017, the 11th ranked UCLA Bruins traveled to Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies in a PAC-12 battle. Normally, a ranked versus unranked matchup would not be the center of NBA scouts’ attention, but this game featured the top-2 point guard prospects in the 2017 NBA Draft class.
Washington’s Markelle Fultz has been widely regarded as the consensus no. 1 pick after capturing FIBA MVP for Team USA in this past summer’s international tournament. Fultz drew comparisons to Kyrie Irving and Brandon Roy for his creative finishing ability, and capacity as a flat out scorer.
UCLA’s Lonzo Ball came out of high school drawing comparisons to Jason Kidd for his amazing basketball IQ. Add in ridiculous athleticism and a consistent three-point stroke and you have a potential star. Ball gained social media fame after videos surfaced of his ridiculous athleticism and passing ability while leading a powerhouse Chino Hills team.
College Production: As of now, the Washington Huskies are 9-14 and looking like a lock to be watching March Madness from home. But as Ben Simmons proved last year, missing the tourney is not enough to hurt the draft stock of a consensus no. 1 pick.
Markelle Fultz is currently leading a mediocre Washington team in points (23.2 PPG) and assists (6 APG) while chipping in six rebounds and a steal per contest. He recently put together a streak of three straight 30-point games — tallying 34 in a loss to Stanford, 37 in an OT win vs Colorado and following up with a 30-point game in a 22-point loss to Utah.
Fultz scores in a variety of ways for the Huskies. He puts pressure on bigs with quick penetration and the ability to finish with both hands around the rim. He also has a tight handle and can find his spots in the pick and roll, pulling up for the mid-range jumper or dropping a pass to a big rolling to the rim. His free throw percentage is pretty low for a guard (64%), but he is solid from deep, currently making two threes per game on five attempts (42%). His quick hands and aggression in the passing lanes get him steals, in transition he’s devastating, and at 6’4 his finishing ability is Kyrie-like, twisting and reversing for ambidextrous layups.
Lonzo Ball is the leader of Steve Alford’s 11th ranked UCLA squad. He’s currently 3rd on his team in scoring (15.1 PPG) and their best passer, averaging about eight assists per game, while adding 5.8 boards per contest. His mere presence has turned a UCLA team that finished 10th in the PAC-12 last year with a mediocre 15-17 record, into a serious national championship contender at 21-3.
Ball’s best moment of the year so far came against #1 ranked Kentucky, he tallied 14 points, 7 assists, and 6 boards, he also hit a big three to put his team up 9 late in the game. The Bruins upset the Wildcats with a final score of 97-92. When watching Lonzo Ball play the first thing I noticed was his passing ability, standing at 6’6 he has the vision to see over smaller guards and make tough passes in the pick and roll. He also is a great transition passer, when he grabs a rebound his eyes immediately scan the court for running teammates, often hitting them with precise bounce passes and the occasional lob. When he does decide to go coast-to-coast, his athleticism and tight handle make him nearly unstoppable.
Like Fultz, he is only shooting 65% from the charity stripe and is hitting 2.3 threes per game on 5.6 attempts which averages out to 42%. His shot release is unorthodox, but you can’t argue with the numbers, he often hits threes from NBA range when he pulls up. Ball is an average defender at the college level, but he is averaging 1.8 steals a game. With such a great frame, many scouts believe Ball has the tools to be a defensive stopper in the league.
The Game: Saturday’s game saw UCLA destroy the Washington Huskies by 41 points, the final was 107-66. But the result of the game was expected by most basketball fans, what mattered most to the scouts was the individual battle between Fultz and Ball. Here are the numbers side by side.
Fultz : 25 points (9-19 FG & 5-10 from 3) 6 boards, 5 assists, 3 steals, 5 turnovers
Ball : 22 points (7-12 FG & 4-7 from 3) 6 boards, 5 assists, 1 block, 4 steals, 3 turnovers
Lonzo Ball and company took control of the game early, capitalizing on Huskies turnovers and turning them into easy transition points. Ball’s early block on Fultz’s jump shot led to an easy layup on the other end. Ball controlled the offense and pace and consistently made the right play while keeping his eyes in the passing lanes on the defensive end. Fultz came on strong in the second half, scoring most of his points after UCLA already had established a double-digit lead. Fultz used a smooth pull-up game to find holes in the UCLA zone while trying to get his teammates involved.
One red flag for Fultz was his apparent lack of defensive effort on some plays, and seemingly cavalier attitude while getting blown out. It was hard to see much of a one-on-one battle from Ball and Fultz because both teams played a healthy amount of zone in the game, but Ball definitely got the best of Fultz in this matchup, further strengthening his case to be the top pick in June.
Comparison: Markelle Fultz is a much more polished scorer than Lonzo Ball, but Ball is a better passer than Fultz. No matter where he is drafted, Markelle Fultz is going to get buckets, what remains to be seen is if he will be able to mature into a locker room leader for the team that drafts him.
Scouts value the “winning mentality” that Lonzo Ball brings. He has been a winner at every level and that is something general managers will take into consideration. He also has the ability to make players around him better. Both players have the potential to change the trajectory of a franchise, but Fultz may keep his edge as the first overall pick because of his presence as a pure scorer, which all lottery teams are in need of.
The Celtics are projected to have the first overall pick. If they do capture the top pick, they will be looking for a star to pair with Isaiah Thomas, who is playing the best basketball of his career. I believe Fultz’s scoring ability will transition to the NBA faster than Lonzo Ball’s, and with the potential to capture an Eastern Conference championship just one major piece away, the C’s will not be willing to wait very long for a potential star to bloom. Also, Fultz is averaging slightly more rebounds and just two fewer assists than Ball, while putting up eight more points per contest, Ball’s two-assist advantage likely won’t be enough to tip the scales in his favor. I think Ball would be a better fit with the Suns at no. 2, pairing him with a budding star like Devin Booker could spell trouble for the rest of the Western Conference.
It’s still relatively early in both the NBA and NCAA seasons and many factors could change the draft order before June 22nd. A Kemba Walker-like tournament run for Ball could help him leapfrog Fultz when all is said and done. General Managers may not like Fultz’s nonchalant attitude and question his ability to lead their team, injury and playoff scenarios also could change what happens in the end. In all likelihood, these two will secure the top two spots in the NBA Draft, but the order may still very much be in question.